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近50a中国≥10℃有效积温时空演变

ISSN号：1001-4675
期刊名称：《干旱区研究》
时间：0
分类：S433.89[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治;农业科学—植物保护]
作者机构：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038, [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038
相关基金：国家重点基础研究发展计划“973计划”项目（2010CB951102）; 国家自然科学基金创新研究群体基金项目（51021066）; 水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金（2011490511）

作者：刘少华[1,2], 严登华[1,2], 翁白莎[1,2], 邢子强[1,2], 王刚[1,2]

关键词： ≥10℃有效积温, 起始时间, 持续时间, MANN-KENDALL检验, 中国, effective accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃, the first day, duration, Mann-Kendall trend test, China

中文摘要：

根据全国583个气象站点近50 a（1961—2010年）日均气温资料,以ArcGIS为技术平台,采用反距离插值和Mann-Kendall趋势性检验等方法,研究了我国≥10℃有效积温等值线中心和典型有效积温带面积的变化规律,以及≥10℃有效积温、起始时间和持续时间的时空分布特征。结果表明：我国≥10℃有效积温的时空分布在1985年前后差异性显著。≥10℃有效积温整体上呈上升趋势,其变化率在0～10℃.d.a-1,≥10℃典型有效积温带整体北移显著。≥10℃有效积温为0～3 400℃.d的区域面积显著减小,而≥10℃有效积温为3 400～8 000℃.d的区域面积明显增加,增速达2.0×104km2.a-1。1985年后我国≥10℃有效积温起始时间提前和持续时间增加的区域面积显著增加;有效积温的起始时间整体有所提前,提前幅度集中在0～4 d.（10a）-1;有效积温持续时间均有所增加,增加梯度集中在0～6 d.（10a）-1。

英文摘要：

The effective accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ is an important index to measure the heat resources in a zone.So the distribution of effective accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ affects strongly the distribution of agriculture and ecological pattern.In this study,the values of effective accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃,first day and duration of temperature above 10 ℃ were calculated using the daily data observed by 583 meteorological stations in China during the period from 1961 to 2010.The spatiotemporal evolution of these factors was studied by the inverse distance interpolation and Mann-Kendall trend test on the technical platform of ArcGIS.The result showed there was a significant spatiotemporal change of distribution of effective accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ in China after 1985.The effective accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ was in an increase trend with an increased rate of 0-10 ℃·d（10a）-1,and its isoline center o shifted northward.Area of the regions where the effective accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ was below 3 400 ℃·d was in a significant reduction.While the area of the regions where the effective accumulated temperature ≥10 ℃ was over 3 400 ℃·d was enlarged with a rate larger than 2.0×104 km2 per year.The area of the regions where the first day of temperature ≥10 ℃ became earlier and the duration of which was significantly prolonged was enlarged.

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