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缺水地区水资源经济价值的异同辨析——以北京市和陕西省为例

ISSN号：1002-2104
期刊名称：中国人口.资源与环境
时间：2012.10.10
页码：19-25
分类：TV-9[水利工程]
作者机构：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048, [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038, [3]环境保护部环境规划院,北京100012, [4]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038
相关基金：国家自然科学基金重点项目（编号：50939006）;国家自然科学基金仓Ⅱ新研究群体基金项目（编号：51021006）.
相关项目：流域水循环模拟与调控

关键词：水资源, 生产函数, 岭回归, 边际生产价值, water resources , production function , ridge regression , marginal production value

中文摘要：

不同发展水平缺水地区的水资源边际生产价值大小是不一样的。本文选取北京和陕西为研究案例区，根据计量经济学中的柯布一道格拉斯《Cobb．Dauglas）生产函数理论。将水资源作为生产要素，并结合劳动力和资本要素，建立了水资源生产函数模型。在以上研究的基础上，以资本、劳动力、用水量为自变量，第一、二、兰产北及综合生产GDP为因变量，采用岭阿归方法对模型参数进行了拟合计算，同时计算分析了2007年研究案例区第一、二、三产业及综合生产用水的产出弹性、价格弹性及水资源边际生产价值（即水资源影子价格）。通过分析比较研究案例区之间及案例区内各产业问的计算结果。辨识了区域与行业间的用水特征及效率差异，分析了研究案例区产业布局与水资源配最中存在的主要问题，并对今后研究案例区的经济社会发展战略提出了建议。

英文摘要：

Marginal production values of water in water deficient areas with different development levels are not of the same size. Based on Cobb-Douglas production function of economics, this paper selects Beijing and Shaanxi as case-study areas to establish production function of water resources. In the model ,water resources are regarded as one of the elements of production to be integrated into the function together with fund and labor. On the basis of the above studies, this paper adopts the ridge regression method taking capital, labor forces and total water consumption as independent variables and taking GDP of the primary industry, the secondary industry,the tertiary industry and the aggregate production as dependent variables, to make a fitting calculation of the model parameters. Then it calculates and analyzes output elasticity, price elasticity and marginal production value of water （ that is, the shadow price of water resources） of the primary industry, the second industry, the tertiary industry and the aggregate production of the casestudy areas in 2007. By comparing and analyzing the computational results of the case-study areas and inter-industries, it identifies the different characteristics and efficiency of water use between the region and the main industry, analyzes the major issues of the industrial layout and water resources allocation, and finally puts forward the strategy for social-economic-development in the future. The analysis result in this paper is of guiding significance for the research of the social-economio development in other water deficient areas and can serve as macro reference for industrial structure adjustment, inter-industry and the adjustment of water price policy.

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