中文摘要：

基于IPCC5 3种代表性温室气体浓度排放路径（RCP）的情景集成数据,采用VIP生态水文模型,模拟分析了黄淮海平原未来冬小麦产量、蒸散量的气候变化响应.模拟结果表明：未考虑CO2肥效时,3种典型排放路径下,冬小麦生育期都将因气温上升而缩短,其产量和蒸散量将呈下降趋势.CO2浓度增加对作物生长的有利影响强于气候变化带来的不利影响,是未来情景下冬小麦产量增加的主要原因.以RCP4.5为例,2050s黄淮海地区冬小麦平均产量将增加14.8%（无CO2肥效时产量下降2.5%）,蒸散量降低2.1%.采用积温需求更高的品种将有利于冬小麦利用CO2肥效提高其产量,但耗水量将有所增加.因此,培育适应气候变化的作物品种、发展节水农业和管理技术是应对气候变化的关键.

英文摘要：

Based on the multi-model datasets of three representative concentration pathway （RCP） emission scenarios from IPCC5, the response of yield and accumulative evapotranspiration （ET） of winter wheat to climate change in the future were assessed by VIP model. The results showed that if effects of CO2 enrichment were excluded, temperature rise would lead to a reduction in the length of the growing period for wheat under the three climate change scenarios, and the wheat yield and ET presented a decrease tendency. The positive effect of atmospheric CO2 enrichment could offset most negative effect introduced by temperature rising, indicating that atmospheric CO2 enrichment would be the prime reason of the wheat yield rising in future. In 2050s, wheat yield would increase 14.8% （decrease 2.5% without CO2 fertilization）, and ET would decrease 2.1% under RCP4.5. By adop- tion of new crop variety with enhanced requirement on accumulative temperature, the wheat yield would increase more significantly with CO2 fertilization, but the water consumption would also in- crease. Therefore, cuhivar breeding, new irrigation techniques and agronomical management should be explored under the challenges of climate change in the future.