中文摘要：

气候变化背景下,冬小麦适宜品种和种植区域的变化将影响流域农业水资源配置。利用IPCCCMIP5三种排放情景（RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5）的多模式集成数据,分析2011-2059年黄淮海地区冬小麦适宜品种、种植范围和农业种植模式的可能变化,并以研究区二级子流域为单元,采用VIP模型预测冬小麦种植区域的可能变化对其蒸散量、灌溉需水量和流域农业水资源盈亏的影响。结果显示：冬性和弱冬性品种将可能逐渐取代强冬性品种,冬小麦种植区逐步北移,北部地区的种植面积可能增加,而南部地区的种植面积则可能缩减。研究区北部冬小麦种植面积扩张将可能加剧海河流域农业的用水紧张,三种情景下2050s海河流域的农业用水缺口将增加3.7×10^8~34.0×10^8m^3。未来水分将取代热量成为海河流域北部地区冬小麦种植面积扩张的主要限制因素。南部地区双季稻种植面积可能扩张,流域水分盈余将减少。黄淮海地区冬小麦种植格局需要逐步调整以适应气候变化。

英文摘要：

The winter wheat varieties and their possibility planting region were going through remarkable changes under climate change, which will have an effect on the pattern of regional agricultural water surplus and deficit. Based on the multi-model datasets of three representation concentration pathways （RCP） emission scenarios from IPCC5, the possibility changes of winter wheat varieties as well as their planting region, crop planting pattern in the Huang-Huai- Hai Region during 2011-2059 were analyzed. The variations of wheat evapotranspiration, irrigation amount and regional agricultural water surplus and deficit were assessed by VIP （soil- Vegetation-atmosphere Interface Processes） model at sub-basin scale. The results show that due to the temperature rising, the possibility planting area for winter wheat will increase in the northern part of the study area, and decrease in the southern part. The strong winterness wheat will be gradually displaced by the winterness and weak winterness varieties. Compared with the baseline, the possibility planting area for winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region will decrease by 0.4%-11.8% in the 2050s. The expansion of wheat possibility planting area in the northern part of the study area may aggravate water shortage of the Haihe River basin. The gap between agricultural water demand and supply may increase by 3.7× 10^8-34.0×10^8 m^3 in the Haihe basin in the 2050s. Under global warming, water will replace energy and become the major factor restricting wheat planting area expansion in the Haihe basin. In the southern part of the study area, the wheat planting area shrinkage will provide an opportunity for the expansion of double cropping rice planting. In this situation, the rainfall surplus will decrease correspondingly. The research results can provide a scientific reference for the rational distribution of winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai Region.