中文摘要：

对网络舆论的监测与管理,事关网络社会安全,体现管理者的社会管理能力和维护社会和谐稳定的能力,因此日益成为研究的热点。本文建立社交子网、环境子网、心理子网和观点子网构成的舆论超网络模型来刻画网络舆论特征,使用超链路预测方法为引导对象的选取提供理论依据,提出领袖引导模型对舆论超网络进行干预与引导,并进行模型仿真以探讨该模型的影响机制及模型参数变化对引导效果的影响。仿真结果表明采用领袖引导模型进行舆论引导与干预,不仅可以量化引导策略,更可以通过超网络内各元素的变化及连动机制,得到引导策略的作用与反馈规律,为引导网络舆论提供全新的定量化方法。

英文摘要：

Monitoring and management of online opinion are related to the safety of online society, reflecting the managers ~ capabilities of social management and maintenance of social harmony, and therefore increasingly become a hot topic. To settle this problem, Leader-Guiding Model （LGM） is proposed to study the mechanisms and effects of online opinion guiding. LGM is based on the online opinion supernetwork that can describe the characteristics of online opinion. Online opinion supernetwork includes social subnetwork, environment subnetwork, psychology subnetwork, and viewpoint subnetwork. Superlink prediction algorithm is used to provide a theoretical basis in selecting guiding objects. The simulation results prove that quantitative intervention strategies and influence mechanisms of elements in supernetwork can be obtained by using LGM to guide online opinion, which provides a brand new quantitative method in guiding online opinion.