中国社会已经进入谣言的高发期,给社会治理工作带来了巨大挑战。对谣言扩散传播的动力学分析是研究社会谣言的首要任务,同时也是世界各国所共同关注的焦点问题。文章从理论与实践两个层面,通过对国内外社会谣言及其传播扩散认知的系统梳理,以社会物理学为基础,借鉴经典的森林火灾模型,在深入分析社会谣言传播与扩散机理的基础之上,构建社会谣言扩散方程,提出社会谣言传播扩散的3种基本情形——加速蔓延、减势趋缓和震荡反复,从而为中国社会谣言的治理工作提供理论指导。
At present, China is not only in a crucial period for social transition and further reform, but also in a special stage of predominantly the social problems and social contradictions. In essence, the rumor as a specific social phenomenon to spread has great destructive power. The spread and diffusion of the rumor can easily lead to social panic, increase the cost of socia governance, disturb the public order, and threaten the social stability operation. Therefore, how to management social rumors effectively, reduce the harmfulness of social rumors, avoid the panic which caused by falsity information, and maintain the public order and morals of soci China' s social governance ety, Thi the research on the social rumor and its transmission dynamics has become the top priority to s article chooses the social rumor and its transmission dynamics as the fundamental point, gives a clear concept of social rumors, and proposes three basic properties inherent in the meaning of social rumors, they are time at- tributes, spatial attributes, and social harmfulness. Above these, from the theoretical and practical aspects, this paper reviews the spread and diffusion of social rumors in the developed countries like United States, Great Britain, Germany, Japan, and some emerging market countries like China, India. In order to govern social rumors effectively, governments of the world elther promulgate relevant laws, or take multiple measures to jointly combat this global "public enemy." At the same time, many cities in the world have set up "the Center for Rumor Control". The officials are called upon to resolve social rumors in the nick of time. The Social Stability Early-warning research group in the CAS began to study the issues of rumor from 2004, and has been discussing related issues from the perspective of social physics. Currently, it has achieved preliminary research results on the generation, development, evolution of social rumors and how to identify them effectively, The classical model of forest fires, as an