中文摘要：

随着Web2．0的迅猛发展和广泛运用，虚拟社会越来越呈现出小世界网络的特性，英国伦敦骚乱以及刚刚爆发的俄罗斯游行事件，煽动者均借助社交网站进行舆论散播。网络舆论愈发成为影响国家利益、事关国家安全的重要因素，若不对网络舆论给予及时关注和正确引导将对经济和社会造成不可估量的影响和损失。因此，如何进行网络舆论引导是新时期对完善和创新社会管理中创新管理理念、方法和手段提出的新挑战。本文的网络舆论引导研究试图回答两个问题：（1）是否需要引导？（2）如何加以引导？为此，首先提出网络舆论事件是否需要引导的3种研判方法，若加以引导，则进一步利用社会网络分析方法对舆论领袖及潜在关键人物进行探测和挖掘，给出引导策略，为创新社会管理中的网络舆论引导提供科学和定量的研究基础。

英文摘要：

With the rapid development of Web2.0, virtual community increasingly presents the characteristics of small world networks. A Case in point is that the agitators of London riots and Russia demonstration employed social network to spread public opinion. Online public opinion is becoming a more and more important factor to affect the national profit and security. Even inestimable impacts and losses on economy and society would be caused without timely attention and proper guidance on online public opinion. Therefore, how to guide online public opinion is a new challenge for concepts, methods and means of en- hancing and innovating social management. This paper focuses on two questions： （1）how to identify online public opinion which needs guidance？ （2）how to guide if necessary？ For that, three methods for identification are firstly proposed. Then, if necessary, guide strategies are given on how to detect and explore opinion leaders and potential key people based on social net-work analysis, which will provide scientific and quantitative research basis for guiding online public opinion of innovation social management.