中文摘要：

基于成本效用理论和演化博弈理论对低生育水平进行研究,探讨低生育水平形成的原因,并利用湖北省宜昌市2015年生育意愿调查数据进行实证检验。研究发现：教育成本的上升和婚姻挤压是生育孩子成本上升的重要原因,孩子保障价值的下降是造成生育孩子收益下降的重要因素,成本上升和收益下降的双重作用使得家庭的生育意愿下降。外出务工人数的增加加剧了生育孩子的成本和效用的失衡,强化了家庭生育意愿下降的机制,学习效应促进了低生育行为的扩散,使该地区的低生育水平得以形成和强化,普遍二孩政策的放开对提升低生育地区的生育水平作用有限。

英文摘要：

Based on the survey data of childbearing willingness from Yichang City of Hubei province in 2015,this paper uses cost effectiveness theory and evolutionary game theory in the analysis of the low fertility level and its cause. The result shows that on the one hand,the rising of education costs and marriage squeeze are the important reasons for the rising of cost in having children. On the other hand,the falling of children＇s social insurance value leads to the decline in benefits from having children. Therefore,the rising costs and falling benefits lead to the dropping of childbearing willingness. The increasing number of migrant workers aggravates the imbalance between cost and benefit in childbearing and strengthens the falling of fertility desire. Learning effects promote the proliferation of low fertility behavior. These all lead to and strengthen the low fertility rate. The effect of the ＂Universal Two-Child Policy＂is limited on this.