中文摘要：

＂全面两孩＂政策的实施将全面影响到我国＂十三五＂期间经济社会发展的方方面面,直接影响着出生人口的数量变化。本文运用湖北省第六次人口普查数据,通过年龄移算法进行人口预测,在比较＂十二五＂公布出生人口与预测出生人口的基础上修正预测参数,从而对该省＂十三五＂期间的出生人口进行预测分析。结果表明：＂全面两孩＂政策的实施会在实施初期带来出生人口的＂反弹＂,但之后则逐年递减,因此它并不能有效改变人口发展的总体态势,尤其是人口结构发展的形式。＂十三五＂初期的出生人口＂反弹＂需要公共卫生机构提高相应的服务能力与建设水平。

英文摘要：

The full implementation of the two-child policy will affect China＇s economic and social development during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and especially affect the size of birth population. The purpose of this paper is to predict and analyze the trends of birth population by applying the sixth census data of Hubei province through population project algo- rithm. The results show that, the universal two-child policy will bring a surge in births at the beginning of the implementa- tion, but then decreased year by year. And the policy cannot effectively change the overall trend of the population develop- ment, especially the development of population structure. Public health institutions need to improve their services and con- struction level to cope with the birth bounce in the early phase of the 13th Five-Year Plan period.