中文摘要：

选取1978—2011年的年度数据，运用协整对中国粮价波动的成因进行实证。结果表明：粮食生产量、农业生产资料价格指数、居民消费价格指数、粮食消费量、国际粮食价格、广义货币量和粮食库存量对粮食生产价格影响显著；粮食生产量、居民消费价格指数、粮食净进口量对粮食零售价格影响显著。而粮价波动的经济效应：2种粮食价格对粮食产量的影响不同；粮价上涨农民得到的很少；不能确定物价与2种粮食价格是否有关。最后提出了相关政策建议。

英文摘要：

This paper uses cointegration to research the causes of China＇s grain price volatility by using the annual data from 1978 to 2011.The results show that： grain production,agricultural production materials price index,consumer price index, grain consumption, international grain prices, broad money and grain stocks have significant influences on prices of grain pro- duction; grain production,consumer price index and grain net imports have significant influences on retail prices of grain.The economic effects of grain price volatility： two kinds of grain prices have different effects on grain production ,farmers get little benefit from grain prices ,we can＇t confirm the relationship this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations. between consumer price index and two kinds of grain prices.Finally