借鉴罗默内生增长模型的主要思想,把能源、环境质量引入生产函数,并将技术因子与劳动力、能源、环境质量相融合,得到更贴近现实的反映经济增长的产出方程式,从而可测定技术因子对“能源一环境一经济”系统的直接与间接效用。在此基础上,通过检验中国1981—2011年的时间序列数据,对经济增长与能源消费、环境治理、技术进步的长期协整关系和短期动态关系进行经验分析。结果表明:中国经济正处在规模报酬递增的阶段;长期中,分别融入技术变量的劳动力、能源消费和污染治理投资及资本存量、技术进步均与经济增长呈正相关关系;短期中,加入技术变量的能源消费对经济增长的影响不显著,加入技术变量的劳动力与污染治理投资对经济增长呈现显著的负相关关系,资本存量短期变化对经济增长带来显著的正向影响。中国经济发展模式应由“劳动一资本一能源”型向“技术一环保”型转变。
Referencing the main idea of the Romer' s endogenous growth model, this paper introduces en- ergy and environmental quality into the production function, and takes the technology factor together with la- bor, energy consumption, environmental quality in order to get a more realistic reflection of economic growth e- quation. Thus, it is possible to measure the direct and indirect effect of technology factor on "Energy-Environ- ment-Economy" system. According to this equation and adopting China' s time series data of 1981-2011, the paper analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationship and energy consumption, environmental governance, technology progress & economic growth, by establishing VAR model, doing Johansen Cointegration test and VECM methods. The conclusion indicates that China' s economy is in a stage of increasing returns to scale. The relationship is positive between economic growth and capital stock, technology progress and labor, energy consumption & pollution control investment that combine with technology variable in a long run. In a short run, it is not significant that energy consumption joined technology variable affects the economic growth. While the labor joined technology and pollution control investment joined technology show a significant negative corre- lation wit economic growth, the capital stock affects positively economic growth. Finally, it is suggested that China' s economy sould develop from "labor-capital-energy" mode to "technology-environmental protection" mode.