中文摘要：

能源利用效率近年来一直是全球关注的焦点．构建能源利用效率均衡解和最优解的理论分析框架，采用1978-2008年的数据进行实证检验，对比分析了2001—2008年我国能源利用效率的均衡解、最优解与实际值的差距，许模拟了2010-2050年能源消费和能源利用效率的发展路径．结果表明：我国能源利用效率的发展具有较强的惯性趋势，其实际值与最优值的差距，主要是由经济发展模式本身所造成的；在当前的发展模式年均8％的经济增长率下和理论计算的最优发展模式下，能源消费高峰达到的年份分别为2040年和2036年，但前者高峰期的能源消费是后者的2．71倍。因此，为达到可持续发展的目的，首要是确立正确的发展模式，其次是制定有效的政治、经济、文化和社会等方面的制度和手段。

英文摘要：

Energy efficiency is the recent focus of every country. In this paper, based on the model of endogenous growth, equilibrium solution and the optimal theory of energy efficiency were calculated; and the dynamic comparative analysis was carried out on the balanced solution, optimal solution and the actual value of China from 2001 to 2008. The development path of energy consumption and energy efficiency from 2010 to 2050 was forecasted. At last, the optimal development model was formulated through simulation under different scenarios of economic growth. The results showed that there was a strong trend of inertia in the dynamic development of China＇s energy efficiency, and the gap of its actual value and optimal value mainly could be mainly attributed to economic development model. Under the current development model and with the annual 8% economic growth rate, the peak of energy consumption would be reached at 2040, while under the optimal development model, the peak would be reached at 2036, but energy consumption of the former would be 2.71 times as the latter. Therefore, to pursue the sustainable development, the right development model must be estabilished, and following that, efficient political, economic, cultural and social systems need to be built.