为研究资产期望收益率与条件方差间的相关性,本文使用上证综合指数日度收益率数据及混频条件异方差模型(GARCH—MIDAS)对投资者风险偏好进行了估计.理论模型表明,当投资者持有的风险资产权重不变时,时间维度上两者的同期相关性取决于投资者风险偏好.当假设风险偏好固定不变时,GARCH—MIDAS的估计结果显示投资者表现为风险中性.随后通过Markov机制转移模型识别出了熊市和牛市两种市场状态,并分别研究了两种状态下的投资者风险偏好.其结果显示:熊市下投资者有显著的风险厌恶,而牛市下投资者则表现为显著的风险追求.
For studying the relation between equity's expected return and conditional variance, this article uses SSE-Index daily return and GARCH-MIDAS model to estimate investors' risk-preference. Theoretical model clarifies that their time-series relation is determined by investors' risk-preference when the weight of investors' risky asset is constant. When assuming risk-preference is constant, GARCH-MIDAS shows that investors are risk-neutral. Subsequently, we identify bear/bull market by Markov regime switch model, and study investors' risk-preferences under the risk-averse during bear market but risk-seeking two regimes respectively. Results reveal that investors are during bull market.