中文摘要：

基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论，提出了板间与板内地震区的分界原则，对欧亚地震带划分了10个板间地震区。从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度，分析了这些地震区大（巨）震事件的孕育过程，研州了其未来震情。结果表明：伊斯兰堡加德满都地震区处于临界状态，巨震可随时发生；阿巴斯港-扎黑丹和拉巴特里斯本地震区未来有巨震发生；奎达-法扎巴德、贝斯尼-巴格达-设拉子和贝鲁特一耶路撒冷地震区未来有大震或巨震发生；奥斯曼尼耶-尼科西亚、罗德岛-克里特岛与突尼斯市-阿尔及尔地震区未来有大震发生；日本海地震区当前孕育周期主震事件已发生，目前余震活动尚未结束。本文所得结论可供有关国家相关部门参考，以采取有效防震减灾措施。

英文摘要：

In this study, we proposed the principles for separating interplate and intraplate seismogenic zones and divided the Eurasian seismic belt into 10 interplate seismogenie zones, based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system. Moreover, we analyzed the seismogenie process of the major or great earthquake events in these zones based on the definition of seismogenic period and the recognition of the main shock event, and forecasted the future earthquake situation. The results showed that the Islamabad-Kathmandu seismic zone has located at its critical state and a great earthquake can occur at any time; great earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of Abbas-Zahedan and Rabat-Lisbon; major or great earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of Quetta-Faizabad, Besni-Baghdad-Shiraz and Beirut-Jerusalem; major earthquakes will occur in the seismic zones of Osmaniye-Nicosia, Rhodes island-Crete island and Tunis-Algiers. Actually, the main shock event has occurred in the current seismogenie period of the Japan Sea seismic zone and the aftershock activity is not yet over. Our results provided valuable prediction information for the relevant departments of relevant countries in the Eurasian seismic belt to take effective measures for earthquake damage reduction.