本文提出了利用事件量级匹配原则确定地震震级的方法,对海原、小江、得荣、伊斯兰堡-加德满都、台湾岛-菲律宾群岛和琉球群岛-台湾岛地震区的回溯性分析表明该方法可行。基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论,修订了1.0版《欧亚地震带板内地震区划分图》和《欧亚地震带板间地震区划分图》,剔除了原洛扎-林芝、于田、比什凯克、科什阿加赤和日本海地震区,新增加了伦敦与贝斯尼地震区,新编制的2。0版地震区划分图地震区总数为14个。此次地震区分区方案调整以区域性大断裂为地震区主控边界,使得各地震区分区方案更为合理。从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,采用新发展的最小有效性震级确定方法,界定各地震区孕育周期、判识其主震事件并分析其未来震情,得到比之前分析更好的结果。
A new method to determine the earthquake magnitude using the magnitude matching principle is presented, which is proved to be feasible by retrospective analysis on the Haiyuan,Xiaojiang,Derong,Islamabad-Kathmandu,Taiwan island-Philippine islands and the Ryukyu islands-Taiwan island seismic zones. Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system,the zoning scheme of most seismic zones related to Eurasian seismic belt in the map version 1. 0 is revised and the edition of the zoning map version 2. 0 is drawn up,where the Lhozhag-Nyingchi,Yutian,Bishkek,Kosh-Agach and Japan Sea seismic zones are removed,and London and Besni ones are added into the new edition. Now,there are 14 defined seismic zones. It is emphasized here that the division boundaries between seismic zones are generally constrained by main regional faults in the new edition. Using the recognition method of the main shock event and adopting the determination method of minimum valid magnitude,we re-identify the mainshock event and re-analyze the seismic tendency of these seismic zones. It is shown here that the present results are better than the previous ones.