中文摘要：

成熟集群的衰退能够对区域经济产生巨大的负面影响，因此成为学者关注的热点。周期性风险、结构性风险和网络性风险是造成集群衰退的主要原因。根据各类风险的来源，从外部环境、创新能力、开放能力、竞合能力以及辅助服务能力等五个维度构建了成熟集群衰退风险的指标体系，分析了不同风险水平下集群的运行特征。根据成熟集群衰退风险来源的不同，应从构建核心人才高地，提升集群网络的开放性和弹性，培育动态竞争优势，健全中介机构等方面化解集群内生性衰退风险。

英文摘要：

The declining of a mature industrial cluster can exert greatly an adverse influence on regional economic development. It has attracted professionals＇ attention. The reasons why the declining happens are mainly the periodical, structural and network risks. A flve-dlmensional evaluation index system is framed for the declining risk of mature clusters in view of different risky sources, i.e. , external circumstances, creativity, capability of opening to outside, competitive/cooperative competence and ability in auxiliary services. The running characteristics of those clusters are thus discussed at different risk levels. According to the different sources form which the declining risk happens, some suggestions are set out to settle the issue of a cluster＇s endogenous declining risk.