中文摘要：

交通事故预测是交通安全评价、规划和决策的基础。在传统灰色预测模型和马尔可夫链理论的基础上，利用新信息优先的思想，建立了等维新息无偏灰色马尔可夫预测模型。该模型通过结合灰色预测与马尔可夫链理论的特点，用无偏灰色预测模型拟合系统的发展变化趋势，并以此为基础进行马尔可夫预测，在每一步预测中不断推陈出新，更新原始数据。以2001年-2010年全国道路交通事故死亡人数实测值作为原始数据，构建预测模型，预测其2011年-2015年事故死亡人数。结果表明：等维新息无偏灰色马尔可夫预测模型的误差更小，精度更高，尤其适合中长期预测。

英文摘要：

The prediction of traffic accident is the basis of transportation safety, assessment and decision-making. Based on the traditional grey forecasting model and Markov chain theory, as well as the new information has priorities, equal dimension and new information unbiased grey Markov forecasting model is established. Combining the characteristics of grey prediction and Markov theory, the model imitates the development tendency of the forecast system with unbiased grey model, while Markov prediction is used to forecast the fluctuation along the tendency. The newest data are gradually added while the oldest one is removed from original data sequence. Then, the number of road traffic deaths from 2000 to 2010 is taken as original data to establish forecasting model predicting the deaths from 2011 to 2015. Experimental results show that the prediction accuracy of the equal dimensional and new information grey Markov forecasting model has fewer errors and better forecasting precision, especially for medium and long-term prediction.