国际贸易不仅直接影响收入分配,还可以通过劳动力这个传导变量在不同产业和地区转移,从而引致不同群体收入的差距。本文运用结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)验证国际贸易、劳动力转移与城乡收入差距之间的关系。脉冲响应分析结果表明:出口贸易的扩张对农村剩余劳动力向第二、三产业转移有正向作用,劳动力转移在短期内对缩小城乡收入差距有正向影响作用,但长期看影响作用消失;出口贸易的发展会对城乡收入差距的扩大有正向作用,而且这种影响将长期存在。这和斯托尔帕一萨缪尔森(Stolper-Samuelson)定理、刘易斯拐点理论认为的在发展中国家出口贸易能缩小高技能和低技能劳动者收入差距大的结论是相违背的。
Not only International trade, but also labor migration can affect Urban - rural income gap. In this paper, the structural vector autoregression model (SVAR) simulates the relationship between international trade, labor migration and Urban -rural income gap. The research results demonstrate that: The expansion of the export trade promote the surplus rural labor to the second and tertiary industries, labor migration can inhibit the expansion of urban - rural income gap in the short term, but the inhibition disappeared in the long term; while exports expanded urban - rural income gap directly whether long or short term . Both effects overprinted, the export trade although inhibited the extent of the expansion of urban - rural income gap to a certain degree, but eventually expanded the urban -rural income gap. This is contrary to Stolper- Samuelson and Lewis.