以长三角地区15个港口为研究对象,对一般货物、集装箱、金属矿石、煤炭、石油、天然气及其制品的吞吐量运用Logistic模型和赫芬达尔一赫希曼指数(Herfindahl—HirshmanmIndex,HHI),定量分析长三角港口群1997—2012年的演变过程及演变特征。结果表明:长三角港口已整体进入发展成熟期,主要货种进入资源整合和调整期;港口群内部演化具有阶段性特征,进度不一致,出现分化现象。港口群发展处于起步期和膨胀期,资源更易向某些特定港口集聚,容易出现规模较大的港口,而其他港口会受到一定程度的抑制;进入成熟期,一些中小港口得到发展,通过调整港口群结构,促使新的港口序列产生;进入融合整合期,调整幅度相对平稳,港口群结构相对稳定。
The volume of freight of 15 ports, selected from Yangtze Rivei Delta Port Group, in 15 years(1997--2012) are analyzed by cargo category with the logistic model and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. The investigation covers general cargo, coal, container, oil, gas and their products. The evolution process and characteristics of the interactional spatiotemporal pat- tern of Yangtze River Delta Port Group for are researched based on the investigation. The research indicates that the devel- opment of the Yangtze River Delta Port Group has entered to the mature period and resources integration and reallocation have been progressing. When the port group is in the initial and fast growing stages, resources tend to be concentrate on certain ports and to result in the development of large-scale ports leaving other ports behind; when it reaches maturity, a number of small ports develop fast and the port group is restructured with a new port ranking. When it enters the saturation period, the structure of the port group will keep relatively stable.