中文摘要：

考虑两种产品需求替代下的自回归移动平均时间序列,零售商采用最小均方差技术预测市场需求,以订货点法确定订货量的两级供应链牛鞭效应量化模型,并对该模型牛鞭效应的大小及其影响因素进行理论分析和算例验证,研究表明：1）需求替代情形下牛鞭效应的表达式对有无需求替代的情况都适用;2）替代系数对被替代产品的牛鞭效应无影响,对替代产品的牛鞭效应有影响,并且替代系数同替代产品的牛鞭效应变化方向一致;3）需求替代情形下缩短提前期并不一定能减少替代和被替代产品的牛鞭效应。

英文摘要：

In the case of considering two kinds of product demand substitution of autoregres- sive moving average time series, retailers use minimum mean variance technique to predict the market demand and order point method to determine the quantity of goods. The paper not only establishes a quantitative bullwhip effect model in two stage supply chain, but also the- oretically analyzes and validates the size of the bullwhip effect including its influence factors. The result shows that： 1） the expression of the bullwhip effect is applied under no demand substitute and demand substitute; 2） the substitution coefficient can not influence the bull- whip effect for replaced products, but can have influence on the bullwhip effect of substitute products. The substitute coefficient changes the same direction with the bullwhip effect for substitute products; 3） shortening the lead time can not necessarily reduce the bullwhip effect under product demand substitution.