以武汉市城郊江夏区和蔡甸区的516户农民家庭为实证,运用logistic和分位数回归模型探索家庭生计资本对农户土地流转行为的影响及阈值。结果表明:(1)人力资本和金融资本与农户农地转出行为呈显著正向相关,家庭农地资源禀赋、机耕能力、社会资源禀赋及经营能力的信任程度等与农地转出行为负向相关。相反,自然资源禀赋及农业机械投入对农户土地转入行为的正向影响显著,而家庭融资能力则对农户转入行为呈显著的负向影响。(2)分位数回归结果显示,对农户土地流转行为存在影响阈值的仅有韧性指数。当农户家庭韧性指数≤2时,随韧性指数增强农户农地转出倾向愈强;家庭韧性指数≥3时,农户农地转出倾向随指数增强而弱化。该研究从农户微观个体视角探索生计资本异质对农地流转行为的影响,为针对农户家庭需求制定差别化的农地流转政策、有效推进农业适度规模经营提供建议参考。
Based on the data collected from 516 farm households in Jiangxia District and Caidian District of Wuhan suburb, this paper first analyzed the influence of livelihood capital on farm household land transfer behavior with the Logistic Model, and then Quantile Regression Model was adopted to explore the threshold of resource endowment about farm household land transfer. The results showed that: (1) Human capital and financial capital had a significant positive correlation with the household outward transferring behavior, while the farmland resource endowment, the quantity of agricultural machinery, the social resource endowment and the confidence level about farmland management capacity had a negative correlation with it. Instead, the natural resource endowment and the quantity of agricultural machinery had a significant positive correlation with the household inward transferring behavior, but the financing capacity had a negative correlation with it. (2) The quantile regression results showed that, only the toughness index had a threshold towards the farm household land transfer behavior. When the toughness index of household was less than or equal to 2, with the increase of the toughness index, the tendency of household outward transferring was becoming stronger. But when the toughness index reached 3 and above, the tendency of household outward transferring decreased along with the increase of the toughness index. This study provided a reference for making differentiated farmland transfer policy aiming at diverse rural household demands and effectively promoting the moderate scale management of agriculture by exploring the influence of heterogeneity of livelihood capital on farmland transfer behavior from the microcosmic individual perspective.