以孝感、武汉、成都、苏州的1394个样本农户为研究对象,运用典型相关分析测度农地经济贡献与农地流转市场发育程度的相关性,利用线性回归提取显著因素,带入分位数回归模型,定量分析农地经济贡献对市场活跃度的驱动效应,探明农地流转市场空间异质性形成的经济诱因,为制定促进流转市场发育的差别化激励措施提供借鉴。研究表明:(1)孝感、武汉、成都、苏州农地经济贡献特征差异显著,农地流转市场发育程度呈现递增梯级分布,农地经营贡献与农地流转市场发育程度具有显著相关关系;(2)农业经营性收入对农地流转市场活跃度的抑制作用随收入增加而减弱,以市场定价机制确定流转租金能够平衡农地供需,保证市场良性发展,适当调整政策性农业补贴的补贴对象和额度,能够更好地发挥激励作用;(3)在农地流转市场起步区,提高农地经营性收入是发展市场的关键;农业经营方式转型区,需运用政策手段干预和鼓励流转,把握好“引导流转”与“强制流转”的度,切实保障农民利益;经济发达区,农业收入保障农户家庭生计可持续的功能逐渐减弱,农民职业分化成为大势所趋。
Based on interviews with 1394 farmer households in Xiaogan, Wuhan, Chengdu and Suzhou, China, we primarily used canonical correlation analysis to measure the relationship between farmland economic contribution and the farmland transfer market. Significant factors were extracted using linear regression, which were then used in a Quantile Regression model to quantitatively analyze drivers of farmland economic contribution on the transfer market. Spatial heterogeneity and the economic incentives of the farmland transfer market were determined. The results show that the economic contributions of farmland are significantly different in Xiaogan, Wuhan, Chengdu and Suzhou, and their growth degrees in farmland transfer markets increase from Xiaogan to Suzhou. There are significant correlations between farmland economic contribution and the transfer market. Specifically, farmland production income has an inhibitory effect on farmland transfer, which decreases with rising income. In order to balance the supply and demand of farmland and ensure the effective development of farmland inflow and outflow markets, farmland rent should be determined through market pricing mechanisms. At the same time, to better exert the incentives of agricultural subsidies, the amount and target should be appropriately adjusted. For the immature farmland transfer market it is critical to enhance farmland production income. In the transformation areas of agricultural management mode, policy instruments are indispensable to intervene and encourage the transfer, and for the sake of interests of farmers, the degree of guiding transfer and forcing transfer should be better controlled. In developed areas, the function of farmland benefits to guarantee the sustainability of farmer household livelihoods is gradually degenerated. In these areas, farmer professional differentiation is a general trend and the farmland transfer market is highly developed.