中文摘要：

在探索天津市改革开放以来耕地数量变化阶段规律的基础上,构建了影响耕地数量变化的社会经济指标体系,采用因子分析法提取了天津市耕地数量变化的主导驱动因子。研究认为：改革开放以来天津市耕地数量持续减少,可分作3个阶段,即快速下降期、平缓下降期和波动下降期;经济发展,人口增长与城市化,农业结构调整,产业结构转变等是导致耕地减少的主要原因。因此,为保证土地可持续利用应重点把握以下方面：提升产业结构,提高经济发展质量;创新农村建设用地整理模式;逐步实现在种植业内部调整农业用地结构;引入市场机制,破解农地整理中的瓶颈难题等。

英文摘要：

Economic and social index system that impacting the quantitative change of cultivated land in Tianjin is established based on the quantity change regulations of cultivated land since the reformation and opening,then using factor analysis method to extract the dominant factors that causing the quantitative change of cultivated land in Tianjin.The conclusion is that there are three stages in the process of decreasing quantity of cultivated land in Tianjin,which are faster descending period,subdued descending period and fluctuant descending period.The major reasons that causing the decreasing quantity of cultivated land are as follows：economic development,increasing population,urbanization,regulation of agricultural structure and adjustment of industrial structure,etc..So,some aspects should be emphasized for sustainable land use that promoting industrial structure and economic developing quality,innovating consolidation model for rural construction land,gradually adjusting agricultural land structure inside the planting industry,resolving the problems of agricultural land consolidation by introducing the market mechanism.