在我国外向型经济发展战略的实施过程中,由于外商直接投资对本土企业的市场空间存在挤出效应,加之全球价值链分工体系的嵌入造成用户对国内产品需求的低端化趋势,导致以装备制造业为代表的本土产业部门缺乏足够的需求支撑,难以实现产业技术创新的良性循环。本文以"市场换技术"战略为背景,从开放经济视角扩展了有效需求规模的概念,并在全球价值链理论框架下分析了我国装备制造业的双重需求结构特征,认为有效需求规模不足和需求结构低端化是抑制产业创新能力提升的关键因素。Granger因果检验表明,有效需求规模与产业创新能力存在严格的双向因果关系;面板数据的固定效应模型显示,需求结构对我国装备制造业创新能力的影响并不十分显著,原因是本土企业长期被锁定在价值链低端而无法起到激励自主研发的应有效果。因而,以突破需求因素制约为导向的政策措施是提升产业创新能力的出路所在。
In the implementation process of Chinese export-oriented economic development strategy,it is notable that the local industrial sectors,especially the equipment manufacturing industry,is lack of sufficient demand,thus it is very difficult to achieve a favourable cycle of industrial technology innovation.One at reasons is that foreign direct investment has a crowding-out effect on the market demand scale of local enterprises.Another reason is that the preoccupation of the division system of global value chain has made the consumers have low-end trend demand for the domestic products.Based on the transmission mechanism of the demand-driven innovation,the concept of effective demand scale is extended from the perspective of open economy,and the characteristic of double demand structure under the theoretical framework of global value chain is analyzed.Then,the conclusion that the lack of effective demand scale and the low-end trend of demand structure are the key factors to inhibit the promotion of industrial innovation capability is summarized.Granger causality test shows that there exists strict two-way causal relationship between effective demand scale and industrial innovation capability;the fixed effect model of the panel data shows that the demand structure has relatively weak impact on the technology innovation of China's equipment manufacturing industry,because the local enterprises have been locked in the low-end value chain for such a long time that it can't encourage the independent research and development.As a result,the policy oriented by breaking the constraints of demand factors is a fundamental way to enhance innovation capacity.