中文摘要：

采用1995--2011年粮食生产与消费的相关数据，在对粮食供需弹性以及粮食收益率估计的基础上，运用Minot福利效应模型，测算并比较分析粮食价格波动对农村居民与城镇居民福利变化的影响。结果表明：粮食价格波动的福利分配在城乡居民间是非均衡的。粮食价格波动与城镇居民福利变动具有负向作用关系，粮食生产价格平均每提高10％，城镇居民短期福利减少3．48％。长期福利减少2．99％；农村居民则由于粮食价格上涨而福利增加，即粮食价格平均每提高10％，农村居民短期福利增加5．50％，长期福利增加6．35％。粮食价格波动的收入效应与替代效应导致了城乡居民福利分配的非均衡性。粮食价格波动中的长期福利效应优于短期福利效应，且城镇居民的福利变动率大于农村居民。反映了城乡居民作为理性人对价格波动的适应性调整。因此，应建立健全城镇低收入群体的价格补贴机制、完善市场价格机制等。

英文摘要：

Based on Minot welfare effect model, this paper estimates supply and demand elasticity of grain from the perspective of welfare distribution on grain production and consumption data from 1995 to 2011 in China. The results show that welfare distribution of grain price fluctuation between urban and rural residents is unbalanced. Grain price fluctuation has negative effect on urban residents＇ welfare. When pro- ductive price of grain increases by every 10% on average, urban households＇ short-term welfare decreases by 3.48% and long-term welfare decreases by 2.99%. Rural households＇ welfare increases with the rise of grain price, that is, rural households＇ short-term welfare increases by 5.50% and long-term welfare in- creases 6.35%, when grain price increases by every 10% on average. Income effect and substitute effect of grain price fluctuation lead to unbalanced effect distribution of urban and rural residents. Long-term welfare effects are better than short-term ones, and welfare exchange rate of urban residents is more than that of ru- ral residents which shows that urban residents have ability to price fluctuation. Government should modify the pricing mechanism, and construct low -income households subsidy system and so on.