中文摘要：

基于2002年1月至2011年12月的月度数据,运用VAR模型实证分析了美国新能源法案对中国玉米价格波动的影响。结果表明：短期来看,美国新能源法案通过市场价格机制和金融风险预期对中国玉米价格波动产生显著的正向影响;长期来看,美国新能源法案的影响逐渐下降,中国玉米价格上涨主要受国内玉米产业成本推动和需求拉动的影响。另一方面,人民币对美元的汇率对中国玉米价格波动的长期影响也较为显著,但原油价格波动对中国玉米价格波动的影响并不显著。

英文摘要：

Based on monthly data between January, 2002 and December, 2011, this paper empirically analyzed the impact of U. S. ethanol mandate on Chinese corn prices employed VAR model. The results show that in the short run, through market price mechanism and financial risk expectation, U.S. ethanol mandate positively influences Chinese corn prices. However, in the long run, the impact of U. S. ethanol mandate will gradually decline, and the increase of Chinese corn prices are mainly driven by high domestic investment costs and dramatic demand. Meanwhile, the long-term effect of exchange rate on Chinese corn prices volatilities is significant; however, there is no obvious influence of crude oil prices on corn prices.