中文摘要：

本文基于1978—2011年中国粮食生产与消费的相关数据，在对粮食供需弹性以及粮食收益率估计的基础上，运用Minot福利效应模型，对粮食价格波动中农户福利的变动进行了测算与分解。结果表明：粮食价格波动的农户福利效应由两方面组成，包括农户作为净生产者的福利变动和其作为净消费者的福利变动。生产福利变动与粮食生产价格变动具有同向作用关系，粮食生产价格平均每提高10％，农户的短期生产福利将增加2．17％，长期生产福利增加2．19％；而消费福利变动与粮食销售价格变动具有负向作用关系，粮食销售价格平均每提高10％，短期消费福利减少1．44％，长期消费福利将减少1．34％。粮食价格变动引起农户收入与粮食消费支出变化的相对值决定农户总福利效应。最后本文分析了这一结论的政策性含义。

英文摘要：

Based on Chinese annual grain production and consumption data from 1978-2011, I estimated the supply and demand elasticity of grain as well as yield ratio from the perspective of welfare distribution. The Minot welfare effect model was employed to analyze rural households＇ consumer welfare and producer welfare under dramatic price volatility. The results show that households＇ total welfare is determined by the PR and CR value. Grain production price fluctuation has a positive effect on producer welfare. When grain production prices increase 10% on average, farmers＇ short-term production welfare will enhance 2.17%, and long-term production welfare will improve 2.19%. However, the grain consumption price has a negative role： when grain retail prices increase 10%, short-term consumer welfare will decrease 1.44%, and long-term consumer welfare will reduce 1.34%. Overall, rural households＇ production welfare constitutes the main role in the whole welfare effect fluctuation. This is caused by the relative value between farmer income and grain expenditure which determines farmers＇ total welfare effects. The inner mechanism is the low demand and supply elasticity of grain which leads to a slow switch of the resource configuration. When the price changes, changes caused by farmers＇ income are greater than the changes in grain consumption expenditure, and farmer welfare improves. Changes in the price of grain farmers＇ long-term welfare effects and short-term welfare effects show the same trend, and rural households＇ long-term welfare is better than short-term welfare. It is demonstrated that government food policy favors urban residents and rural household interests are neglected. Therefore, it is suggested that the government balances the interests of rural households and urban residents, and initiate price control policy when the price fluctuates beyond a certain level.