中文摘要：

在厘清突发事件和危机概念基础上,文章通过构建入境旅游人数BP神经网络模型,利用西藏2005!2009年月入境旅游人数统计数据,分析了西藏2008年＂3.14＂突发事件对入境旅游市场规模影响和政策响应作用机制。结果发现：①突发事件对西藏入境旅游影响周期为18个月,入境游客损失量为47.14万人次,旅游经济损失量为2.15亿美元。②入境旅游政策与入境旅游人数之间存在宏观响应关系,入境旅游人数呈现出周期性波动现象。③突发事件影响的入境旅游政策响应演变特征表现为维稳限旅、救市兴旅、强基保旅和品牌强旅,政策响应作用机制核心要素是旅游目的地安全、市场和经济。

英文摘要：

On the basis of clarification of unexpected event and crisis concept, this paper builds a back propagation BP Neural Network model, using inbound tourist trips to Tibet from 2005 to 2009 （by person） and analyzes the impact and policy responses to the Lhasa ＂3.14＂ unexpected event. The results show that：Tibet＇ s inbound tourism was affected for 18 months（from March 2008 to August 2009） The impacts on inbound tourism in Tibet are divided into several phases; the outbreak period which continued for two months （from March to May 2008） , the first-phase duration which lasted for four months （from June to September 2008） and the second-phase duration which continued for five months （from April to August 2009）. The extended period lasted only one month （ March 2008） while the first-phase degradation was experienced from October 2008 to February 2009. From September 2009 to December 2009 the second-phase degradation operated. Lhasa ＂3 . 14＂ unexpected event caused Tibet＇s inbound tourism losses of 0.47 million person-trips and 215 million US dollars in lost receipts. The losses were experienced from the following countries： Hong Kong （0.42 million person-trips and 193 million US dollars） , Macao （0. 015 million person-trips and 6.83 million US dollars） , Taiwan （0.01 million person-trips and 4.93 million US dollars） and foreign countries （0.02 million person-trips and 9.65 million US dollars）. There is a macroscopic response relationship between inbound tourism policies and the number of tourists. During the outbreak period, tourism destination took social stability and tourist safety into utmost consideration and restricted inbound tourism. During this period tourist arrivals dropped from 127 person-trips down to no trips at all. The loss experienced is calculated to be 203.21%. In the first-phase duration, tourism destination implemented bailout policies to develop inbound tourism. Tourist arrivals then increased from 65 person-trips to 16,300 person-trips, reduc