中文摘要：

通过改进Kaya公式,基于城市居民出行特征分析,提出城市客运交通CO_2排放计算模型建立了CO_2排放量预测模型;通过分析上海市目前实施的低碳交通措施,在合理假设的基础上,设计了上海市4种不同低碳发展模式,并通过预测模型和计算模型分别算出2020年上海市城市客运交通CO_2排放量。基于对各个场景减排效果的对比分析,发现所设场景均无法达到政府的预期减排目标,政府应在现有措施的基础上,深化减排措施及途径。

英文摘要：

Based on the travel characteristic analysis of urban residents, calculation model of carbon dioxide emission from urban passenger transport （UPT） was designed through the deformation of Kaya formula. Through analyzing the current low-carbon transport measures in Shanghai, four kinds of low carbon scenarios were designed based on reasonable assumptions of Shanghai urban passenger transport and carbon dioxide emission in 2020 were calculated through forecasting model and calculation model respectively. After comparing and analyzing the carbon dioxide mitigation in each scenario, it was concluded that none of the scenarios could realize the emission mitigation target promised by national government. Therefore, national government should develop other efficient ways to reduce carbon emission..