中文摘要：

选取1978–2012年的数据,应用交叉效率数据包络分析法（Cross-efficiency DEA）和向量自回归模型（Vector Autoregression,VAR）对中国现代交通运输业的效率波动情况及其影响因素进行分析.研究结果表明,交通运输业的投入和产出要素之间,均存在单向格兰杰（Granger）因果关系;交通运输业的效率波动可以划分为效率上升、高效运行和效率下降三个阶段,总体上呈现出“先升后降”的趋势;交通运输业对人均消费、政府支出、能源消耗和固定资产投资的冲击均表现出正向为主的响应,对劳动的冲击表现出负向响应,而对信息的冲击则表出响应“滞后”.

英文摘要：

In order to explore the efficiency volatility and influence factors of Chinese modern transportation industry based on the data from 1978 to 2012, the Cross-efficiency DEA and VAR model are adopted. The result proves that, one-way Granger casualty relationship exists, respectively, between the input variables and output variables; the efficiency volatility of modern transportation can be divided into three stages：efficiency improvement, high efficiency operation and efficiency loss, which shows the trend of“rising first, then falling”in general; the response of transportation industry to the shock of per capita consumption, government spending, energy consumption and fixed-asset investment are positive, while to the shock of labor factor is negative, what’s more,“lag effect”exists in the response of transportation industry to the shock of information element.