中文摘要：

针对征收碳税对可再生能源在能源结构中占比的影响,建立了经济-能源-环境CGE模型,该模型在传统CGE模型的基础上增加了能源经济模块,细分了电力部门和化石能源部门,选择在化石能源的使用环节从价征收碳税,并从实施碳税对可再生能源总产量及能源结构的影响和对可再生能源在能源结构中消费占比的影响两个角度,分析了各种能源随着碳税税率的变化情况。结果表明：从生产侧能源结构变化的角度来看,当碳税收入占GDP的比例由零增加到0.9%时,煤炭总产量明显降低,石油总产量也有所降低,降低幅度小于煤炭,可再生能源和火电的总产量均有明显增加,化石能源的总消耗有所降低,能源结构得到优化;从可再生能源消费占比来看,当碳税收入占GDP的比例由零增加到0.9%时,可再生能源和清洁能源在能源结构中的占比均明显上升,各部门对煤炭的消费量明显降低,煤炭在整个能源结构中的占比也明显下降,石油消费的占比则变化甚微,可再生能源实现在能源结构中的明显渗透;在目前的电力结构和规模技术参数下,火力发电量的消费占比大幅上升,相对于火电消费占比的增幅,可再生能源消费占比的增幅较小。基于计算结果,提出了相应的政策建议,并得出结论：实施碳税不仅能够有效提高可再生能源占比、促进能源结构优化,而且有利于加速可再生能源替代,完善能源消费模式。

英文摘要：

For studying the impacts of levying carbon tax to the proportion of renewable energy in energy structure, an energy-environment-economy CGE model which adds the energy-economic model compared with traditional CGE model, which disaggregates the electric power sector and fossil energy sectors, and which levies ad valorem carbon tax in the stage of using and consuming fossil energy, is developed to simulate the variation of the renewable energy proportion in energy structure from two points of view in the condition of levying the carbon tax in different proportion（from 0 to 0.9%）in GDP.The results indicate that, from the view of the change of energy structure in the production process, the total output of coal and petroleum decreases sensitively with the carbon tax increasing,and the decreasing amplitude of petroleum is smaller than coal＇s. However, the output of the renewable energy increases obviously,as well as the thermal power. The total consumption of fossil energy decreases shapely, and then the energy structure is optimized. From the view of the consumption proportion of renewable energy in energy structure,when the proportion of carbon tax in GDP varies from 0.1% to 0.9%,the consumption proportion of coal decreases rapidly,while the consumption proportion of oil varies slightly,the proportion of renewable energy and clean energy in energy structure increases obviously,as a result,the renewable energy has an obvious permeation into energy structure.At the present electricity structure and technology lever, the consumption proportion of thermal power increases faster than renewable energy. At last, some reasonable advice will be put forward and conclusion will be drawn based on the result： Implementing a carbon tax can not only increase the proportion of the renewable energy in the energy structure and improve the development of the renewable energy effectively and optimize the energy structure, but also can make for the replace of renewable energy and perfect the consumption pattern of energy effecti