应对全球变化和促进低碳发展已经成为21世纪世界各国发展的重要议题。低碳型发展的目标,一是促进社会发展,二是降低碳排放,因此关键科学问题是提高城市低碳竞争力。作为碳排放量日益增长同时又要提高13亿人社会福利的发展中大国,中国需要对城市低碳竞争力的理论框架、评价系统与管理思路进行深入研究。而如何评价城市低碳竞争力水平,目前尚没有完善的理论与方法。因此,本研究基于导向性原则、数据可获性原则、可比性与动态性等基本原则,将城市低碳竞争力评价指标体系分为三大类,即低碳环境支撑能力、低碳经济增长能力和低碳社会发展能力。在传统理想解法的基础上,引入灰色理论建立灰理想关联分析评价模型,并采用中国北京、上海、天津和重庆4个城市2007年的相关数据进行实证研究。研究结果表明案例城市的低碳竞争力具有差异性。除了重庆以外,其它案例城市的低碳竞争能力超出全国平均水平。综合排名分别为:北京、上海、天津和重庆。可通过实现低碳产业化、低碳城市化和低碳现代化提高各城市的低碳竞争力。
Low-carbon development has become an important topic in the 21st century due to global climate change. Low-carbon development aims to reduce carbon emissions during economic development. As a developing country with a population of 1.3 billion, China must improve its urban low-carbon competitiveness in order to decouple development and increasing carbon emissions. It is necessary to develop a model for the evaluation of low-carbon competitiveness across urban China. The evaluation indicator system, which includes low-carbon environment, economy and social development, was developed here based on the principles of orientation, data availability, comparability and dynamicity. Grey Relational Analysis (GRA) is also introduced to establish the evaluation model for low-carbon competitiveness for four major cities: Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjing and Chongqing. The results show that Beijing ranks first in terms of low-carbon competitiveness; Shanghai second, followed by Tianjing and Chongqing. Results indicate that urban low-carbon competitiveness can be improved by developing low-carbon industry, low- carbon urbanization and low-carbon modernization. Analysis of these four cities shows that the lower the correlation degree is, the greater the low-carbon competitiveness a city will have. This relationship indicates that the coordinated development of the economy, energy utilization and ecological environments is preferred for achieving comprehensive benefits for cities. This work will form an important theoretic basis for the development of low-carbon cities across China.