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中文摘要：
从概率学上推演了基于风险的桥梁船撞设防力确定方法，对美国规范模型、欧洲规范模型、拉森模型和昆兹四个代表性船桥碰撞概率模型进行评述和比较后，推荐采用美国规范模型和拉森模型并基于国内情况进行相应的调整后计算船撞碰撞概率。
英文摘要：
The method ascertaining resistance force of bridge components against vessel collision based on risk was deduced from probability. In the meanwhile, after analysis and comparison of the characteristic of four representative international vessel collision probability models named AASHTO collision model, Euro code collision model, O. D. Larsen collision model and KUNZI collision model receptively, AASHTO collision model and O. D. Larsen collision model with some modification according to domestic condition were suggested at last.
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