中文摘要：

土地利用与覆盖变化是全球变化研究的重要组成部分,干旱区土地利用与覆盖变化的机制与其驱动力又是干旱地区相关问题研究的核心。巴州地区作为新疆的农业大区,随着人口规模的扩张对耕地的需求不断增加,因此研究其耕地的变化具有重要的现实意义。利用1978-2009年的统计数据,分析了30年间巴州耕地变化的总体趋势、运用定性、定量相结合的方法对耕地数量变化的驱动力进行分析,最终建立耕地变化多元回归模型。结果表明：30年之间巴州地区耕地呈持续增长趋势,耕地变化除具有以全区总体变化为代表的普遍特征外,还有明显的区域差异;耕地变化主要与经济因素有关,并与总人口、粮食总产、机械总动力等人口和农业生产因素显著相关。

英文摘要：

Land use and land cover change is the important part of the global change research.The mechanism and driving forces of arid region land use and land cover are also the core of arid region＇s related issues.Ba Yingulun region is the agricultural region of Xinjiang.With the expansion of population and the demand for cultivated land,study on Ba Yingulun region＇s cultivated land has the important tangible significance.This study used the statistical data of 1978-2009 to analyze the overall trend in cultivated land use change of Ba Yingulun in the past 30 years,established the multiple regression model of land change.The results showed that cultivated land of Ba Yingulun increased persistently in the past 30 years,change of cultivated land was not only taken the general characteristics of the Xingjiang,but also showed the obvious regional differences.The change of cultivated land mainly depended on economic factors and was extremely related with total population,total grain production,machinery power and so on population and agricultural production factors.