根据近年来西安市辖区人口数量、耕地面积、粮食产量的统计数据,分析得到,西安市辖区耕地面积迅速减少,人均粮食占有量严重不足,人地矛盾日益突出。并利用AR IMA模型对西安市辖区的人口数量、耕地面积、粮食产量进行了预测。通过预测和分析得到2020年该地区的人口-耕地-粮食资源矛盾更加的尖锐,因此提出一些相应的对策以供参考。
According to the number of the population,cultivitated land and grain output statistics in recent years in Xi'an area,we knew that the cultivitated land declined rapidly,the grain per capita suffered with serious shortage,and the conflict between population and land became more serious.We used the ARIMA model to forecast the population,cultivitated land and grain production in Xi'an area.The prediction and analysis showed the conflicts among population,cultivitated land and grain will be more acute in 2020,so some countermeasures were given for reference.