本研究基于农地利用、稻田、牲畜肠道发酵和粪便管理等四方面16类主要碳源,测算了我国1995年-2010年期间以及31个省(市、区)2010年的农业碳排放量。结果表明:①2010年我国农业碳排放总量为28673.23万t,较1995年增加了12.31%。其中,农地利用、稻田、肠道发酵和粪便管理所导致的碳排放量分别占农业碳排总量的34.29%、42.48%、17.77%和5.46%;分阶段来看,呈现较为明显的"上升-下降-上升"的三阶段变化特征;②横向来看,区域差异明显:农业碳排放总量,排在前10位的地区占全国农业总排放的59.61%,而排在后10位的地区仅占全国8.33%,传统农业大省尤其粮食主产省区是我国农业碳排放的主要来源地;基于碳排放比重差异,将31个地区划分为了稻田主导型、农地利用主导型、牲畜肠道发酵主导型、复合因素主导型等四种不同结构类型;农业碳排放强度,总体呈现出西高东低的特征,即西部〉中部〉东部。在此基础上,运用Tapio脱钩模型对我国农业碳排放与农业经济发展间的脱钩关系进行了分析,发现以弱脱钩和强脱钩为主,说明近年来我国在农业碳减排方面取得了一定成效。
This study calculated the agricultural carbon emissions in China during 1995-2010,as well as 31 provinces in 2010,based on 16 categories of major carbon source from agricultural land use,paddy field,livestock enteric fermentation and manure management.We found that China's agricultural carbon emissions in 2010 were 286.7323 million tons(equal to 1051.3517 million tons of carbon dioxide),a 12.31% increase over 1995 resulting from agricultural land use,paddy fields,livestock enteric fermentation and manure management,which respectively produced carbon emissions of 98.3164 million tons,121.8020 million tons,50.9619 million tons and 15.6520 million tons and accounted for 34.29%,42.48%,17.77% and 5.46% of total agricultural carbon emissions.Emissions displayed an obvious 'up-down-up' phase-change characteristic,increasing from 1995-1999,decreasing from 2000-2003,and increasing again from 2004-2010.In lateral view,the regional difference was clear as the top 10 regions accounted for 59.61% of the total agricultural carbon emissions,while that of the last 10 regions was only 8.33%.Hunan province ranked first palace and produced 24.2451 million carbon emissions,while Tianjin ranked last and produced only 0.7726 million carbon emissions.As for the structure of agricultural carbon emissions,based on the differences of carbon emissions ration the 31 provinces were divided into four types(paddy field dominant,agricultural land use dominant,livestock enteric fermentation dominant and composite factors led).Agricultural carbon emission intensity across west China was highest,followed by the middle zone,and the east zone was lowest.Tibet province was the highest zone,its agricultural carbon emission intensity as high as 2931.74kilograms per ten thousand agricultural gross domestic product,while Shandong province was the lowest zone with an agricultural carbon emission intensity as low as 207.75 kilograms per ten thousand agricultural gross domestic product.On this basis we conducted Tapio decoupling in the analysi