中文摘要：

利用Topsis方法测度中国31个省份1998-2011年的农业科研机构创新水平，考察并预测了财政科技投入与农业科研机构创新的短期及长期动态关系。结果表明：财政科技投入对农业科研机构创新的长期弹性为0.67，短期弹性为0.55，当短期贡献偏离长期均衡时，误差修正将以42.7%的力度使其回至长期均衡状态；财政科技投入与农业科研机构创新之间呈现出互为因果的关系，即增加财政科技投入能推动农业科研机构创新，同时创新水平越高的农业科研机构能获得越多的财政科技投入；从短期波动来看，农业科研机构创新对财政科技投入增长的正向冲击较小，贡献仅为2.7%；而财政科技投入对农业科研机构创新的提升则具有显著的正向作用，贡献达47.8%，且东、中、西区域变量之间的贡献度存在差异。由于农业科研机构创新对财政科技投入的贡献较小，创新水平高的省份和创新水平低的省份获得财政科技投入的差距不大，这显然不利于激励各省农业科研机构创新。实现“高创新吸引高财政科技投入”的科研体制，利于有效激发科研机构创新的积极性。

英文摘要：

This paper first uses Topsis method to measure the innovation of agricultural research institutions from 31 provinces between 1998 and 2011 and then predicts the short-term and long-term dynamic relationships between finance R＆D input and innovation of agricultural research institutions.The empirical result shows that long-term elasticity of finance R＆D input on innovation of agricultural research institutions is 0.67,and short-term elasticity is 0.55.When deviating from long-term equilibrium, short-term innovation will be adjusted to equilibrium state at a speed of 42.7% by error correction.This paper also verifies the cause and effect relations between finance R＆D input and innovation of agricultural research institutions.That is to say,increasing government investment in S＆T can promote the inno- vation of agricultural research institutions, and agricultural research institutions with higher innovation levels can obtain more finance R＆D input.In the short term, innovation of agricultural research institutions only has a weak and positive impact on growth in fiscal R＆D input, with a contribution of only 2.7%,while the latter applies a significant positive impact on the former one, with a contribution of 47.8%.And there are visible differences in the contributions of eastern,central and western regions.Due to the little contribution of innovation of agricultural research institutions to finance expenditure in science and technology, the gap is quite narrow among provinces with high innovation level and ones with lower levels.It is evident that this situation is not conducive to encouraging innovation of provincial agricultural research institutions.Therefore,it is essential to develop a new mechanism that high innovation level attracts high finance R＆D input, which will greatly stimulate innovation enthusiasm of agro-research institutions.