指数期货与其标的指数现货之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,因此可以采用普通最小二乘法和广义自回归条件异方差模型来实证检定我国首只金融期货标的指数——沪深300指数的隔夜效应、日内效应、周内效应及月内效应。实证结果表明:日内及周内效应均显著存在于沪深300指数,该指数每日日内收益率的分布呈现“W”字的型态,且一周中周一的收益率显著为正;而沪深300指数不存在隔夜及月内效应。
In view of the long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between stock index futures and its benchmark index, the paper adopts OLS and GARCH models to empirically study the overnight effect, intraday effect, day-of-the-week effect and turn-of-the-month effect that may occur in the SHSE- SZSE 300 index. The results indicate that ( 1 ) intraday effect and day-of-the-week effect significantly exist ; (2) the change of return exhibits a W-shaped pattern in each trading day and the mean returns are higher on Mondays than on any other day of week ; and (3) overnight effect and turn-of-the-month do not exist.