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广义负二项分布对钉螺分布的拟合
  • ISSN号:1002-3674
  • 期刊名称:《中国卫生统计》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学;医药卫生—卫生事业管理;医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] R184.38[医药卫生—流行病学;医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]
  • 作者机构:[1]复旦大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,200032, [2]Institute of Mathematical Sciences, University of Malaya, Malaysia, [3]安徽省池州市贵池区血吸虫病防治站
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金重大项目(基金编号30590374);国家863项目(项目编号2006AA022402)
中文摘要:

目的介绍并应用广义负二项分布研究湖北钉螺的分布规律,为定量化研究提供理论依据。方法随机抽取安徽省池州市贵池区秋浦河沿岸的4块滩地作为研究现场,2005年调查4块滩地的钉螺数据,2006年从中再随机抽取2块滩地进行调查。通过全局最大似然法分别拟合广义负二项分布和负二项分布,比较同一季节不同滩地和不同季节同一滩地的分布拟合结果。结果不同季节、不同滩地的钉螺密度是不同的,但其分布形状均是相似的正偏态分布,广义负二项分布能成功地拟合所有的钉螺数据。不同季节同一滩地问的广义负二项分布参数的变化不一致,同一季节不同滩地广义负二项分布的参数估计结果即使在钉螺密度相近的情况下也不相近,钉螺生存环境的微小差异可以通过广义负二项分布的参数灵敏反映。结论广义负二项分布比负二项分布能更好地反映钉螺分布的复杂性,其将在钉螺的定量化研究领域以及家庭聚集性疾病、寄生虫病和定量生态学的研究中具有重要意义。

英文摘要:

Objective To study the distribution of Oncomelania hupensis with generalized negative binomial distribution (GNBD), and provide the theoretical support for quantitative study. Methods 4 bottom-lands were randomly selected along the Qiupu River in Guichi District, Anhui Province, as the study area to survey the snails in 2005, and 2 bottomlands from the 4 selected bottomlands were randomly chosen to survey the snails in 2006. Global maximum likelihood estimation was used to fit GNBD and negative binomial distribution (NBD). Results from different bottomlands in the same season and the same bottomlands in different seasons were compared with each other. Results Snail density in different seasons and different bottomlands were different, but they had the similar positive skewness distribution. Generalized negative binomial distribution was successfully fitted to all the snail data. The parameters of GNBD from the same bottomlands in different seasons changed differently, and parameters of GNBD from different bottomlands in the same season were not similar even if their snail density were close. Tiny differences in different habitats of snails could be sensitively reflected by the parameter distinctness of GNBD. Conclusion GNBD could well reflect the complexity of snail distribution than NBD, which will have a great significance for the quantitative study of snails.

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期刊信息
  • 《中国卫生统计》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中华人民共和国卫生和计划生育委员会
  • 主办单位:中国卫生信息学会 中国医科大学
  • 主编:孟群
  • 地址:沈阳市沈北新区蒲河路77号
  • 邮编:110122
  • 邮箱:zgwstj@126.com
  • 电话:024-31939626
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1002-3674
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:21-1153/R
  • 邮发代号:8-39
  • 获奖情况:
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:20780