中文摘要：

基于LMDI模型，分别研究碳排放系数、经济发展、能源强度、能源消费结构、产业结构、人口六个因素对云南省生产活动的碳排放的贡献量和贡献率。结果表明，经济发展是驱动云南省碳排放增加的最主要因素，人口规模和产业结构也是碳排放量增加的驱动因素；能源强度则是抑制碳排量增加的最主要影响因素，碳排放系数和能源消费结构因素也对减少碳排放起着一定的作用，但不是很明显。说明云南省由于处于工业化发展时期，工业发展对能源的消费需求大，影响因素中的驱动因素对碳排放量的贡献率大于抑制因素，在短时期内云南省的碳排放仍将持续增长。因此，云南省需要改变经济发展方式，坚持计划生育的基本国策，提高能源利用效率和促进产业结构与能源消费结构的转变。

英文摘要：

This paper uses LMDI model to study the contribution and contribution rate of carbon emissions coef- ficient, economic level, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, population to carbon emissions of production activities in Yunnan province respectively. As the results shown that economic development is the most important factor of carbon emissions increase in Yunnan province, population scale and industrial structure are also the driving factors of carbon emissions increase; Energy intensity is the main factor to curb carbon emissions in- crease, carbon emission coefficient and the energy consumption structure also play a role to reduce carbon emis- sions, but not very obvious. It indicates that Yunnan province is in the period of industrialization, the energy con- sumption demand for industrial development is big, meanwhile, the contribution rate of the driving factors to carbon emissions is greater than the inhibiting factors, in a short period, the carbon emissions of Yunnan energy consump- tion will continue to grow. Therefore, to cut CO2 emissions in Yunnan province, it needs to change the pattern of e- conomic development, adhere to the basic state policy of family planning, improve energy efficiency , promote the transformation of industry structure and energy consumption structure.