利用LMDI模型将云南少数民族地区能源消耗增量影响因素分解为经济发展、能源强度、人口规模三项因素,分析各影响因素对少数民族地区能源消费量的贡献量和贡献率,为少数民族地区节能降耗的政策制定提供依据。通过对2005—2012年云南少数民族地区能源增量规律的研究得出:经济发展与人口因素是能源消耗增加的重要驱动因素,其中经济发展因素对能源消耗的影响最大,占能源消耗增量的135.25%;人口规模对能源消耗的影响因素为7.63%;能源强度是抑制能源消耗增加的关键因素,对云南少数民族地区累计影响为-42.88%。要实现云南少数民族地区经济的可持续发展,需要合理规划经济发展速度,协调经济发展与能源消耗的矛盾;优化产业结构,完善基础设施建设;稳定经济增长,提高能源利用效率,提升清洁能源在能源消耗结构中的比重;弘扬少数民族优秀传统文化,倡导低碳经济发展理念。
The development of ethnic minority areas is an important part of China’s economic and social development. Using the LMDI model,this paper decomposes the influential factors of energy consumption increment into economic development,energy intensity,and population size. This paper also analyzes the influential factors of the three components to the energy consumption of ethnic minority areas and thus facilitates making policies of reducing energy consumption. Through studying the increment of energy consumption of ethnic minority areas from 2005 to 2012,three conclusions are made in this paper. First,economic and population growth are important drivers of energy consumption. Economic growth has greater influence,which accounts for135. 25% of the energy consumption. On the other hand,population scale is responsible for 7. 63 % of the total energy consumption. Second,one must fulfill the following requirements in order to rationalize the sustainable development of ethnic minority areas: reasonable planning of economic growth; coordinating between economic development and energy consumption; optimization of industrial structure and improvement on its infrastructure;stabilizing economic growth and increasing energy efficiency by creating larger proportion of green energy; enriching of traditional culture of ethnic minorities; advocating the concept of low- carbon economy development.