针对少数民族农户生产行为特征,构建少数民族农户农业生产行为的碳排放结构模型,根据碳排放系数法,结合相关文献资料,对农业生产过程中投入的化肥、农药、农膜、柴油、汽油、电力等六个要素碳排放进行测算。运用二元Logistic回归模型实证分析白族农户低碳生产行为的影响因素,得到:期末经营土地面积、生产收入以及本村到县城的距离三个因素对碳排放具有显著影响。根据分析结果提出推广低碳种植技术、合理分配生产收入、推广测土配方施肥技术和完善农村社会保障体系的四条减碳措施。
In this paper, the structural model of carbon emission caused by production behaviors of farmers in the minority area is constructed based on the characteristics of production behaviors of these farmers, and based on the method of carbon emission factors and relevant literatures, it estimates the carbon emission of six factors that are devoted to agricultural production, namely, chemical fertilizer, pesticide, agricultural film, diesel, gasoline and electric power etc. Through the experimental analysis of factors that affect low-carbon production behavior of farmers in the Bai Nationality with binary Logistic regression model, it can be seen that the land area, production income and the distance from the village to the county have significant effect on carbon emission. According to the analysis results, four measures are taken to reduce the carbon emission, that is, the promotion of low-carbon planting technology, equitable distribution of production income, the promotion of technology in soil testing and formulated fertilization, and the improvement of social security system in rural areas.