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中文摘要：
依据混凝土的弹塑性特性，在三点弯曲梁损伤分析中借鉴了双线性损伤模型的基本思路，提出了以挠度为因变量的三点弯曲梁损伤计算方法；利用灰理论建立模型对三点弯曲梁的损伤进行预测，比较了计算值与预测值差异，分析了发展系数口和灰作用量b的发展趋势，给出了精确预测的起始点，分析结果表明灰预测理论可以较好地应用于三点弯曲梁的损伤分析和预测。
英文摘要：
According to elasto-plastic characteristics of concrete,by using the bilinear damage model,a new damage model for three-point bending beam is suggested whose original variable is deflection. This paper utilizes grey theory to predict tendency of damage compares diversity between calculation and prediction, analyzes tendency of development coefficients and grey influencing coefficients. The results indicate that grey forecasting theory can be utilized in damage analysis and prediction well.
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