中文摘要：

本文针对近年来出现的＂民工荒＂问题,运用系统动力学建模方法,建立了劳动力价格视角下＂民工荒＂问题的系统流图,并运用统计年鉴相关数据进行劳动力市场模拟运行,得出＂民工荒＂问题的直接原因,是企业长期以来给予农民工的工资水平与劳动力市场价格相背离,而劳动力市场价格是宏观与微观因素系统作用的结果。在当前条件下,提高农民工的工作稳定性和人力资本投资都能在提高农民工工资的基础上增加农民工数量,但前者更有助于企业在相对较小的人力成本压力下增加农民工数量。解决＂民工荒＂问题,应综合考虑宏观和微观因素,按照劳动力市场规律,从企业、政府、农民工个人三个方面协调解决当前存在的问题。

英文摘要：

In view of the problem ＂Migrant Workers Shortage＂emerging in China in recent years, the paper proposes that direct causes leading to the problem is wages issue through theory analy- sis. An causal loop diagram and a system flow chart about the problem is established from the per- spective of wages by utilizing system dynamics modeling method based on theoretical analysis and study on factors of wage determination, the relation between wages level and the number of migrant workers. The model is run to simulate the labor market by applying historical data from some sta- tistical yearbooks. The result indicates that direct cause of the problem ＂Migrant Workers Short- age＂ is their wages deviate from labor market prices seriously. Labor price in market is determined by both of macro and micro factors systematically while the ＂Migrant Workers Shortage＂ is the con- sequence of no practice complying with market rule. It will be effective to improve their job sta- bleness and increase their human capital as well to solve the problem on current condition. Never- theless, the former is more helpful for corporate to increase migrant workers with fewer human cost. To solve the problem, it is essential to systematically think both macro and micro factors to fill existing differences from the three aspects of corporate, government and migrant workers.