本文运用一般均衡方法,从收入来源端和使用端两方面测量居民间接税负担。在对间接税归宿机制进行理论分析的基础上,进一步构建可计算一般均衡(CGE)税收模型,运用差别税收归宿的测算方法,对中国2010年农村和城镇不同收入组居民负担的主要间接税进行测算。结果表明:中国城乡居民间接税负担均呈U型,且农村居民间接税负担重于城镇居民;来源端税负对总税负的影响大于使用端,总的税负累进(退)性更接近来源端。研究进一步发现,居民收入与支出结构是影响累进(退)性的决定因素,要素替代弹性与来源端税负呈反向关系,与使用端呈正向关系,与累进(退)性呈反向关系。
This paper discusses the general equilibrium approach of indirect tax incidence. The authors assume the indirect tax incidence of households includes both the sources-side and the uses-side of income. Based on a theoretical analysis of the indirect tax incidence mechanism, we further construct a computable general equilibrium model to measure the main indirect taxes on the rural and urban households for different income groups for 2010 data. The tax incidence in the entire population, including urban and rural households, is U-shaped, and the incidence of rural households is heavier than that of urban households. Moreover, the influence of the sources-side tax incidence is greater than that of the uses-side one, therefore the progressivity of entire tax incidence is closer to the sources-side one. The gap of income and expenditure pattern among households plays a vital role in the change of progressivity of tax incidence. In addition, factor substitution elasticity has negative impact on sources-side tax incidence and on its progressivity, yet affects uses-side tax incidence positively.