中文摘要：

燃煤发电由于具有成本优势.近年来快速发展.在保障中国电力供应和国民经济发展方面发挥了不可替代的作用.但是也面临着巨大的环境压力;光伏发电对于调整中国电力结构、缓解环境压力具有重要意义.但因发电成本居高不下制约了其快速发展。考虑燃煤发电的环境成本和光伏发电的学习效应.本文构造了燃煤发电和光伏发电成本函数.对燃煤发电和光伏发电成本进行了预测和比较。研究结果表明.2012年考虑环境成本的燃煤发电成本为0.8254元/kWh.远高于不考虑环境成本0.227元/kWh .燃煤发电成本较符合以时间为自变量的对数函数.光伏发电的成本较符合以时间为自变量的二次函数;考虑环境成本的燃煤发电成本呈逐年上升趋势.光伏发电成本呈逐年下降趋势。进一步的比较发现.考虑环境成本时的燃煤发电成本与光伏发电将于2019-2020年间趋于一致。也就是说.考虑燃煤发电的环境成本时.光伏发电的成本优势将很快显现。但是.由于燃煤发电技术进步、燃煤发电完全成本计价的困难、光伏发电发展的商业模式不清晰和基础设施不完善等因素的影响.光伏发电要真正替代燃煤发电还有很长的路要走。

英文摘要：

With the cost advantage, coal-fired power have achieved rapid development in recent years, and played irreplaceable and vitally important role in providing security of energy supply as well as national economic development, but also facing greater environmental pressure. Photovoltaic power, on the other hand, played increasing important role in electricity structure adjustment and environmental pressure mitigation, but high cost constrained its growing trend. Our research constructed a coal-fired and photovohaic power cost function by considering environmental cost of coal-fired power and learning effects of in the meantime, and then reckoned and compared the cost of coal-fired and photovoltaic power. The results showed, the cost of coal-fired power by considering environmental cost in 2012 is 0. 825 4 RMB/kWh, much higher than 0. 227 RMB/kWh, the cost when regardless of environmental cost. And the cost of coal-fired power accords to logarithmic function that take time as variable, the cost of photovohaic power accords to quadratic function that take time as variable. By considering environmental cost, the cost of coal-fired power showed a rising tendency, while the cost of photovoltaic showed a decreasing tendency. By further comparison, by consideration of environmental cost, the cost of coal-fired and photovoltaic power incline to equal in between 2019-2020. In a word, by considering environmental cost, the cost of photovoltaie power would become more competitive compared with coal-fired power. However, there are vast of issues to be solved for photovohaie power to challenge the dominance of coal-fired power, such as the immature business model of photovoltaic power and the innovation of coal-fired power technology.