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中文摘要：
IPCC（1995）第二次科学评估报告指出了极端气象事件变化研究的重要意义。长江下游地区地势低平，往往是我国暴雨洪涝的多发区域，造成严重灾害，因此，研究长江下游地区暴雨的规律具有极其重要的意义。选取了长江下游地区52站1960—2003年逐日降水资料，运用EOF分析将其分为3个分区，采用小波分析，Mann—kendall非参数检验法及趋势系数法等分析方法研究各分区汛期暴雨降水的气候统计特征。结果表明：虽然汛期同为暴雨降水的集中时期，但各分区暴雨降水在汛期降水中所占比重略有差异，暴雨降水量、频次所占比例的空间分布为西区较大、东区和北区略小，暴雨平均强度则西区和北区东部强、其他区域小。同一区域中降水量与频次具有显著的正相关，不同区域间仅暴雨降水量的相关性较好。暴雨降水量44a中呈现了增加的趋势。各区汛期暴雨具有多重时间尺度的周期变化，暴雨降水量和频次的周期在西区与全区的较为一致，主要是6—9a的周期振荡。东区和北区有着不同尺度的振荡周期。各区的暴雨降水强度都不同程度地存在着3a的周期振荡。长江下游地区汛期暴雨降水量除北区外，全区及其他分区的突变时刻均发生在1980年代末-1990年代初这一时期，暴雨降水量在1980年代中期。20世纪末出现了一个增长的过程，北区趋势并不显著。全区暴雨平均强度在突变时刻之后有一个减弱的过程，而西区和北区的暴雨平均强度变化并不显著。
英文摘要：
Based on the daily precipitation data of 52 stations in the Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in 1960 ～2003, the statistical characteristic of precipitation due to rainstorm during the rainy season of the region were studied. The results show that the rainy season has the most concentrated rainstorms, which account for 87% of the annual precipitation. The investigations were carried out in 3 subregions generated by EOF analysis. The minimum precipitation proportion occurs in the west subregion although it is still larger than 65%. The precipitation amount, frequencies and mean intensities of the rainstorms during the rainy season have nonuniform distribution in the subregions. They are larger in the west subregion but smaller in the east and north subregions. The rainstorms in the whole region and all subregions appear to have multi-timescale periods. The rainstorm precipitation amount and frequencies in the west subregion mainly explain the variance of oscillations of 6～ 9 years for the whole region. However, the oscillatory periods of the east and north subregions are different. Additionally, a high frequency oscillation was found in the rainstorm precipitation intensity in all the three subregions. The rainstorm precipitation has increasing trends during the middle 1980s and the late 20th century. But the precipitation of the north subregion shows no significant trend. The sudden changes of the rainstorm precipitation were found between the late 1980s and the early 1990s except for the north subregion. It is, however, mainly responsible for the change of the mean rainstorm intensity of the whole region. Nevertheless, mean rainstorm intensity of the west and north subregions have no significant changes in the mean intensities. For the whole region, a decreasing trend occurred after the sudden increase.
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