中文摘要：

文章从出口贸易规模、市场结构和产品结构三方面对中国对中亚五国农产品出口贸易进行分析，并运用恒定市场份额模型分析中国对中亚五国农产品出口贸易波动的影响因素及各因素的影响程度和变化趋势。结果表明：中亚五国市场对农产品的进口需求是决定中国对其农产品出口贸易波动的主导因素，且中国出口中亚五国的农产品贸易增长越来越依赖于中亚五国市场进口规模的扩大，而竞争力效应和二阶效应在促进中国对中亚五国农产品出口贸易中发挥的作用逐渐弱化。

英文摘要：

The paper analyzes the scale, market structure and product structure of China＇sagricultural product exports to the Five Countries in Middle Asia and uses the ConstantMarket Share Model to analyze the factors influencing them and the extent of each factor.The result indicates that compared with the competitive effect and residual effect, theincreasing demand for the agricultural products in the five countries in Middle Asia is themost important factor that influences China＇s agricultural product exports, and it plays moreobvious role in recent years.