中文摘要：

我国在现代化进程中面临严峻的社会风险挑战，基层城乡社会成为了“风险聚变反应堆”，进入本世纪以来，特别是2010年以来各类突发事件频发，政府与市场、社会虽都已做出积极反应，但因危机频发而主要忙于应对，在地方治理中形成了以应急为先的“彗星式”应对体系，将亡羊补牢之策作为了首选策略，这显然不是治本之计。基于地方治理中社会风险的四大主要风险源及风险演绎逻辑的已有研究，以群体性事件为例建构了一个社会风险发生概率的精炼测算模型与理论分析框架，提出应该选择“（强政策×强执行）∩（强政府×强社会）∪强社会资本”为“优策略”，即通过政社协同治理网络来组合“强政府”与“强社会”的分别优势，建立一个“事前－事中－事后”全流程防控体系，以防为主、为先、为重，通过消除社会风险因素的积累来减少公共危机的发生，进而防控并举以促进国家与社会的平稳、健康、持久的发展。

英文摘要：

China is facing serious social risks and challenges in the process of modernization, the rural and urban grassro-ots society has become a ＂risk fusion reactor＂, since 2000, and especially since 2010, all types of emergencies Occur frequently, the Government, the Market, and the Society are reacting positively, but are just busy with handling, so it has been formed a ＂Comet＂ contingency response system in local governance, taking ＂remedy the situation＂ as the preferred strategy, and this is clearly not a permanent countermeasure. Therefore, after combing a variety of unexpected public crises in local governance, four major sources of social risks are parsed out, and on the basis of the existing studies, we construct a social risk Summary Calculation Model and a theoretical framework by taking group events as an example, then propose to choose an ＂excellent strategy＂-[ （strong policy × strong execution） ∩ （strong government × strong society） ∪strong social capital] ＂ to prevent and control social risks, namely, assemble respective advantages of ＂the Strong Government＂ and ＂the Strong Society＂ by collaborative governance network, to establish a prevention and control system path in the ＂pre-now-after＂ process, taking ＂Prevention Strategy＂ as the first and the most important strategy, to re-duce the probability of occurrence of public crisis by eliminating the accumulation of social risk factors, and thus to promote our country having a steady, healthy, and sustainable development by preventing and control-ling social risks.