中文摘要：

该研究以获取新疆林果产业大风沙尘风险灾害防控等级为目的,以自然灾害系统理论为基础,结合林果业受大风沙尘灾害危害特征,以气象、基础地理信息、农业和社会经济等方面数据为依据,从致灾因子风险性,孕灾环境敏感性和承载体脆弱性3方面分析了大风沙尘灾害风险构成;采用层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)结合加权综合评价法对指标进行筛选和权重确定,在Arc GIS空间分析模块支持下,按照各指标分配的权重对各单项评价指标进行叠加分析,获得新疆林果产业大风沙尘风险评估区划等级图。从空间分布看,南疆林果业遭受大风沙尘的风险高于北疆。从局部区域看,塔克拉玛干沙漠南缘以和田地区为主风沙危害最为显著,为一级防控区;托克拉克沙漠、布吉里沙漠、库木塔格沙漠、噶顺戈壁区以喀什地区、巴州地区、哈密和吐鲁番区域风沙危害较为严重,为二级防控区;其他区域为三级防控区。该研究为有关生产部门针对性地防御和减轻风沙灾害提供决策依据。

英文摘要：

Natural disaster is a major adverse event resulting from natural processes of the earth, which consists from hazard bearing environment,hazard formative factors, hazard affected bodies, etc. Wind dust is one of the three major disasters of featured forestry and fruit industry in Xinjiang. The wind dust hazard caused great damage to the growth and yield of featured forestry and fruits in Xinjiang, due to its sudden happening,wide range of hazard affected areas and tremendous loss, meanwhile it has significant impact to the economy of local farmers and the whole region. To provide certain basis for the relevant production departments to defense and reduce the side effects of sandstorm disasters, this studyanalyzed the risk composition of wind dust disasters in three aspects, such as the risks of hazard-formative factor, the sensitivity of hazard affected environment and vulnerability of hazard bearing bodies, based on the theory of natural disaster system, combined with the characteristics of wind—dust disaster to the featured forestry and fruit industry in Xinjiang, and associated with the auxiliary data sets such as meteorological,basic geo-information and the agricultural and social economic data sets.In the disaster risk assessment zoning, reasonable empowerment for each hazard—formative factor would directly affect the reliability and formality of assessment results. This studyused the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method and weighted comprehensive assessment method for properly selecting the item weighted indices for each factors in the disaster assessment model. According to the risk composition characteristics, this paper summarized the risk assessment indices in three aspects: the risk model of hazard-formative factors(intensity of wind—dust,wind days and frequency of wind-dust), sensitivity model of hazard affected environment(average wind speed, relative humidity,average temperature anddesertification area) and vulnerability model of hazard bearing bodies(GDPper area,cultivated land area, featur